Forecast Calibration and Combination: A Simple Bayesian Approach for ENSO
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecast Calibration and Combination: A Simple Bayesian Approach for ENSO
This study presents a new simple approach for combining empirical with raw (i.e., not bias corrected) coupled model ensemble forecasts in order to make more skillful interval forecasts of ENSO. A Bayesian normal model has been used to combine empirical and raw coupled model December SST Niño-3.4 index forecasts started at the end of the preceding July (5-month lead time). The empirical forecast...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Climate
سال: 2004
ISSN: 0894-8755,1520-0442
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1504:fcacas>2.0.co;2